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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Prediction: Landslide VIctory for Barack Obama

If everything keeps going according to the plan, Sen. Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States. I feel that he'll have an easy win and for the next 20 days I'll be posting some of those reasons why I have this indication. 

Reason #1 Obama Dominates Among Early Voters In Five Swing States

by The Huffington Post News Editors
SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole.

We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

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